Probability Puzzles

Question 1:

Three people are trying to win a game. Each of them is given a hat that is pink or yellow with equal probability ($\frac{1}{2}$). They can each see the colour of the other two hats, but not their own hat colour. They can define a strategy before playing the game but cannot communicate with each other when the game starts. 

Each of them has to guess the colour of their own hat (the guesses are kept secret from each other).  Valid guesses are 'pink',  'yellow' or 'don't know'. 

They win the game if at least one of them guesses correctly and none of them guesses incorrectly. 

Answer 1: 

The strategy should be that if someone sees the other two people wearing the same colour hat, they should guess the opposite colour. If they see two people wearing different coloured hats then should guess 'don't know'. 

The possible outcomes are the following: 

$$ P(3 pink) = \frac{1}{8} $$

$$ P(3 yellow) = \frac{1}{8} $$

$$ P(2 pink, 1 yellow) = \frac{3}{8} $$

$$ P(1 pink, 2 yellow) = \frac{3}{8} $$

Therefore this strategy will work $\frac{3}{4}$ of the time. 

Question 2: 

A plane has 100 passengers who have each been allocated one of 100 seats. However the first passenger to board the plane chooses his seat randomly (perhaps he lost his ticket). The remaining 99 passengers sit in their own seat if it is unoccupied or also choose a seat randomly if someone is sitting in their allocated seat. What is the probability that the last passenger sits in their own seat? 

Answer 2: 

As soon as somebody sits in the first passenger's seat, they break the cycle and everything after that is fine. Therefore, when the last passenger boards the plane the only seats that can be free are either the first passenger's seat or the last passenger's own seat, with equal probability, so the answer is $\frac{1}{2}. $

Question 3: 

A family has two children.

a) One of them is definitely a girl. What is the probably that the other one is also a girl? 

b) The older one is a girl. What is the probability that the younger one is also a girl? 

c) One of the children is a girl with a very unusual name (let's say Rumplestiltskin). What is the probability that the other child is also a girl? (Note that we don't know whether she is older or younger than her sibling).

Answer 3:

a) Three equal options (G B), (B G) or (G G). Answer = $\frac{1}{3}$ 

b) Two equal options (G B) or (G G). Answer = $\frac{1}{2}$

c) 

Let's say that the overall probability that a girl is called Rumplestiltskin = $\frac{1}{10000}$

Possible events: 

P(Girl called Rumplestiltskin, Boy) =  $ \frac{1}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{40000}$

P(Boy, Girl called Rumplestiltskin) = $ \frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{10000} = \frac{1}{40000} $

P(Girl with a normal name, Boy) = $ \frac{9999}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{2} = \frac{9999}{40000}$

P(Boy, Girl with  normal name) = $ \frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{2} * \frac{9999}{10000} = \frac{9999}{40000} $

P(Girl with normal name, Girl with normal name) = $\frac{9999}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} * \frac{9999}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} = \frac{99980001}{400000000}$

P(Girl with normal name, Girl called Rumplestiltskin) = $ \frac{9999}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} = \frac{9999}{400000000}$

P(Girl called Rumplestiltskin, Girl with normal name) = $\frac{1}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} * \frac{9999}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} = \frac{9999}{400000000}$

P(Girl called Rumplestiltskin, Girl called Rumplestiltskin)* = $\frac{1}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} * \frac{1}{10000} * \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{400000000}$ 

Conditional probability: 

$$ P (A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}$$

Probability of two girls where one girl is called Rumplestiltskin = $\frac{19999}{400000000}$

Probability that one is called Rumplestiltskin = $\frac{39999}{400000000}$

So the P(two girls given one is called Rumplestiltskin) = 

$$ \frac{19999}{40000000} / \frac{39999}{400000000} = 0.499987... \approx \frac{1}{2}$$

(Yep maths is magic) 

*someone call child services

Question 4:

50% of people that complete in a competition win a prize. 95% of people that won the prize felt that they deserved a prize. 75% of people that did not win a prize thought they deserved a prize. 

Whats the probability of getting a prize in the competition if you feel you deserve one? 

Answer 4:

Bayes theorem:  

$$P(A \mid B) = \frac {P(B \mid A) P(A)} {P(B)} $$

$$ => P(prize \mid deserve) = \frac{ P (deserve \mid prize) P (prize) } { P (deserve) } $$

$$=> P(prize \mid deserve) = \frac{0.95 * 0.5}{0.85} = 0.5588... \approx 0.559 $$

Question 5:

What is the expected number of coin tosses to get n heads in a row? 

Answer 5:

Expected number of coin tosses to get one head: 

$$E_1 = 2$$

To get n heads you first need n-1 heads in a row. Then you can either toss another head with probability $\frac{1}{2}$ or a tail, in which case you need $E_n$ more heads. This defines the following recurrence relation:

$$E_n = \frac{1}{2}(E_{n-1} +1) + \frac{1}{2}(E_{n-1} + 1 + E_n)$$

$$ => E_n = 2 E_{n-1} + 2 $$

Hypothesis: 

$$ E_n = 2^{n+1} - 2$$

With a simple proof by induction we see this is indeed the case.